It's a lot harder than I thought it would be to get a good picture showing the tilt in the wheel - several shots from different distances from behind wound up being unclear but this one from close behind with the wheel off and the jack in view is very clear:
I took a bunch of photos but I think most of them are worthless unfortunately. This shows the whole area from underneath:
The rubber boot between the wheel and axle here is the other thing that seems strange. It is hard to see but if you look close here it seems like something inside of there is bent? It is subtle but it is tight on the bottom side here, the one on the other side of the car is perfectly symmetrical.
The friend that had been telling me he was sure the bearing had gone out changed his mind immediately when we jacked up the car and he tried moving the wheel. There is no inappropriate play, but possibly a little drag.